Why incumbents rarely lose

Five other incumbents, three Republicans and two Democrats, also had sought re-election but lost their primaries. Sixteen Democrats and 25 Republicans retired or are seeking another office; one Democrat died this summer, leaving his seat open, and because of court rulings there are three newly redrawn districts with no incumbent. In times of uncertainty, good decisions demand good data. Please support our research with a financial contribution.

It organizes the public into nine distinct groups, based on an analysis of their attitudes and values. Even in a polarized era, the survey reveals deep divisions in both partisan coalitions. Pew Research Center now uses as the last birth year for Millennials in our work. President Michael Dimock explains why. The vast majority of U. Use this tool to compare the groups on some key topics and their demographics. About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world.

Each member of Congress has a office budget allotment which provides enough money to hire a sizable staff both in Washington, D. These staffers assist members in their efforts to be effective, well-liked representatives.

In addition to money for staff, members of Congress also have travel allowances for trips between Washington and their constituencies as well as for trips inside their states or districts. Sitting members of Congress are on the job full-time—that is what they are paid to do. In fact, many of the things a candidate would do to win an election, such as meeting and talking with voters, attending special events, appearing on television or radio talk shows, etc.

In contrast, a candidate challenging an incumbent must generally figure out how to pay his or her bills while running for office. Many candidates are forced to go into debt, especially in the early stages of a campaign before he or she has raised much money. Sitting members of Congress are almost universally recognized in their districts. Having waged at least one previous campaign, and a successful one at that, and then serving in Congress for two years House members or six years Senators makes a sitting member of Congress something of a household name among his or her constituents.

Moreover, members of the U. House and Senate have easy and ready access to the news media and make regular appearances on television and radio programs and are frequently mentioned in newspaper articles and editorials. As noted, every sitting member of Congress has run at least one successful election campaign for the seat he or she holds.

Figure 1. In , of the House and Senate incumbents that sought re-election, —or This was 9. Furthermore, according to the Cook Political Report, as of January 8, , only 33 of the House seats—or 7.

These patterns are replicated at the state level. In recent years there has been an upward trend in uncontested elections in state legislative races. In the election cycle, This was an increase of 8.

In addition to this, a recent Ballotpedia report found that the state legislative elections saw the lowest degree of competitiveness in recent years. Indeed, in , only 4. Again, we found that the data backs him up. Since , House and Senate incumbents have been re-elected at average rates exceeding 93 and 87 percent, respectively. House elections. It is important to note that redistricting may have had an impact on the re-election rates at both the federal and state levels, as the process resulted in incumbents running against other incumbents in the same district.

High incumbent re-election rates are also common at the state level. According to another Ballotpedia analysis of state legislative elections from to , the incumbency win rate has not dropped below 88 percent since Furthermore, in the state legislative elections, incumbents won re-election at a rate of Waxman at olivia. By Olivia B. Estes Kefauver on the Mar.

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